Q4-2017-MultifamilyReport
Q4
MULTIFAMILY M E T R O B O S T O N
2017
CONSTRUCTION WAVE CONTINUES IN BOSTON
INSIDE STATISTICS...
MARKET RATE
AFFORDABLE RATE
CAPITAL MARKETS
303 Congress Street Boston, MA 617.457.3400 303 Congress Street | Boston, MA 02210 | 617.457.3400 www.NAIHunnema .com www.naihunneman.com
1
Q4
2017
TOTAL VACANCY RATE
ASKING RENT $/SF
12-MONTH ABSORPTION
UNITS DELIVERED
CONCESSION (AVERAGE $)
MULTIFAMILY OVERVIEW
Boston’s Construction Wave is Coming In 2017, demand drivers impressed as both population and employment trends remained positive throughout New England’s largest metro areas. Greater Boston outperformed with the metro’s population base surpassing 4.8 million. The unemployment rate steadily declined during the second half of the year; falling below 3% in December, and expansions in the education, tech and life science industries continue to drive the Boston metro area’s economy. Steady job growth and continued migration toward urban and infill locations bode well for household formation in suburban towns surrounding the city. However, construction outside of the Route 128 loop has been more subdued this cycle. The market may see an increase in concessions as new units deliver in the coming quarters. With that said, construction starts dropped across many of the top markets in the U.S.; including Boston. saw vacancies climb to 4%. In the Springfield/ Worcester metro vacancies in Class A-/B+ assets ended the year at 2.8%. The construction pipeline in these markets is a drop in the bucket compared to Greater Boston. However, deliveries ticked up in 2017, with several hundred units coming on line in both Providence and Springfield/Worcester.
While this wave of new construction is beginning to weigh on effective rents, the area maintains some of the most expensive rental markets in the country. According to Zumper, the median rent for a one-bedroom unit was $2,400 per month and nearly $2,300 per month in Cambridge and Boston, respectively. Another data source, ABODO Apartments, ranks Cambridge the third-most expensive city to rent a one-bedroom apartment in the U.S. — behind only San Francisco and New York. While trends in the Providence and Springfield/Worcester metros tend to be more pedestrian than in Boston, multifamily fundamentals are just as positive. Vacancies remain well below 4% in both markets, demand drivers are solid and market rate asking rents continue to increase. Vacancies in Providence’s Class A+/A asset class inched up to 3.7% in the fourth quarter, and the Class A-/B+ market
Affordability, particularly in Boston, remains a key topic of debate.While the state has committed funds for affordable housing developments in Massachusetts, the recent H.R. 1 tax cuts and jobs act will certainly have an impact on the larger multifamily market. First, the impending decrease in corporate tax rates will likely drive down the value of Low-Income Housing Tax Credits, which will ultimately affect affordable housing construction. As a result, the demand for acquisition and rehab opportunities in the affordable housing space will likely grow and we can expect a consolidation of ownership in this market. Other potential impacts of this recent tax legislation include a decline in home prices, which could weigh on rental demand as renters opt for homeownership, and a temporary bump in value for owners of suburban, market-rate multifamily properties as these renters await a pricing correction in the single-family home market.
this market. Vacancies in the Boston metro’s Class A+/A asset class increased to 4.7% in the fourth quarter while the Class A-/B+ and Class B/B- asset classes posted vacancy rates of 4.1% and 3.6%, respectively. Nationwide, developers remain active in urban core locations; particularly in gateway cities like Boston. From 2015-2017, almost 20,000 market rate units have delivered in Greater Boston, which represents 13% of the metro area’s total apartment inventory. With another 11,500 units slated to complete in 2018, the inventory will expand by another 7.6%. Construction has been focused on East Boston, the Seaport and core
TOTAL VACANCY RATE
ASKING RENT $/SF
YTD ABSORPTION UNITS
UNITS DELIVERED (YTD)
ANNUAL CONCESSION (AVERAGE $)
3.40%
$2.17
2,881
7,473
1.5%
Population Growth: 0.3%
Population Age 20-34: 21.5%
Household Growth: -1.6%
Multifamily Permits: 8,940
Median Household Income: $71,336
Year-Over-Year as of 2017
As of 2017
Year-Over-Year as of 2016
30.2% Increase YTD as of December
Massachusetts as of 2017
2
MARKET RATE MULTIFAMILY
4.5%
4.0%
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
TOTAL VACANT (UNITS)
TOTAL VACANCY RATE
Q4 NET ABSORPTION
YTD NET ABSORPTION
ASKING RENT ($/SF)
3.5%
Boston Metro
3.0%
149,991
5,250
3.5%
282
3,144
$2.39
Providence Metro
26,302
868
3.3%
44
52
$1.53
2.5%
Springfield/Worcester Metro
25,391
711
2.8%
74
(458)
$1.50
2.0%
Q1 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2014
Q3 2014
Q1 2015
Q3 2015
Q1 2016 201,684
Q3 2016
Q1 2017
Q3 2017
TOTAL
6,8 9
3.4%
400
2,738
$2.17
Boston
Providence
Springfield/Worcester
VACANCY
TRENDS
4.5%
• Due to the progressive uptick in new construction, vacancy rates saw a slight increase in the fourth quarter of 2017. On the whole, rates ended 2017 at 3.4%, with Springfield/Worcester boasting the lowest vacancies at 2.8%. • Boston’s high apartment rents are continuing to push renters to relocate to more affordable locales. According to Apartment List, a large percentage of renters surveyed in Boston plan to move to another city due to affordability. The survey revealed Providence as the top spot for relocating Bostonians. • The Boston Planning & Development Agency (BPDA) recently approved a series of residential, commercial and hospitality projects across the city, which are expected to generate a total of 541 units and more than 1.4 million square feet of new space. Aside from two large projects, the Omni Boston Seaport Hotel and the 426- unit community development at 264 Huntington Ave., three smaller residential projects recently received approval. This includes a 22- unit project at 75-85 Liverpool Street in East Boston and a 46-unit project at 46 Hichborn Street in Brighton. • Brighton may also see a wave of new supply. The BPDA recently approved the construction and restoration of nearly 660 residential units at 159-201 Washington Street. The project will feature 98 affordable units, a 1,000-square-foot, publicly-accessible art gallery as well as a 1,200-square-foot multipurpose function room. • A joint venture of Twining Properties and Mass PRIM has been established on Mass+Main, a 308,000-square-foot, $190 million development in Cambridge. The project will include 308 mixed- income apartments and 17,000 square feet of retail space. Construction of the development will commence in the fall of 2018.
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
Q1 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q3 2013
Q1 2014
Q3 2014
Q1 2015
Q3 2015
Q1 2016
Q3 2016
Q1 2017
Q3 2017
Boston
Providence
Springfield/Worcester
Rents RENTS
Boston Providence Springfield/Worcester
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
$1,000
$500
$0
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
Boston Providence Springfield/Worcester
Units Completed UNITS COMPLETED Rents
8,000 $2,500
7,000
6,000 $2,000
4,000 $1,500 5,000
3,000 $1,000
2,000
$500
1,000
0
$0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017
Boston Providence Springfield/Worcester Boston Providence Springfield/Worcester
*Expected
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303 Congress Street Boston, MA 617.457.3400
3
Q4
2017
AFFORDABLE RATE MULTIFAMILY
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
UNITS COMPLETED (2012-16)
EXPECTED COMPLETIONS (2017)
Boston Metro
63,594
2,195
515
Providence Metro
24,464
198
205
Springfield/Worcester Metro
20,895
496
-
TOTAL
108,953
2,889
720
AMI INCOME LIMITS - MA A I Income Limits -MA
TRENDS
1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 8-person
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000
1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 8-person • To date, 22,000 new residential units have come on line in Boston, which represents over 40% of the 53,000 Mayor Marty Walsh’s administration promised by 2030. Of the 22,000 completed units, 4,062 are restricted to middle-income households, or families of four that make a combined $125,000. Another 1,682 units are restricted to low-income households, or families of four that make between $21,000 to $62,050. In total, 6,500 of the proposed 53,000 units will be reserved for low-income households. • Annually, The Boston Foundation’s Greater Boston Housing Report Card judges both the affordability and availability of housing in the Greater Boston area. In 2017, the report estimates that housing in Greater Boston will increase by nearly 12% from 2016. • The same report also highlights the need for more multi-unit housing in the Boston metro, which should target two growing demographic cohorts: millennials and seniors. According to data from the Metropolitan Area Planning Council, these two demographics are the only groups expected to grow through 2030. • The Beverly, a long-awaited low and middle-income apartment building offering 239 subsidized units, was completed in the fourth quarter of 2017. Of the 6,000 people that applied for the 239 apartments, only 48 will be awarded to low-income renters (those earning up to $41,400 a year). • In the Providence metro, the rise of the housing market in 2016 lead to rising prices, and in turn meant fewer homes and apartments available for families with household incomes below $50,000. Due to this increasing “affordability gap,” there were 1,561 foreclosure deeds issued, an increase of 32% from the previous year. • The Sisters of Providence, a Catholic religious community, was awarded $750,000 in Community Preservation Act funding from West Springfield to aid construction of 36 affordable housing units on Riverdale Street in Springfield. 2014 2015 2016 2017
1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 8-person
Extremely Low Very Low Low
AMI Income Limits -MA FAIR MARKET RENTS
Fair Market Rents
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500
1-person 2-person 3-person 4-person 5-person 6-person 7-person 8-person
$0
Extremely Low Very Low Low 2-Bed 1-Bed
Effeciency
3-Bed
4-Bed
Boston Providence Springfield Worcester
Fair Market Rents UNITS COMPLETED
1,200
$2,500
1,000
$2,000
800
$1,500 600
$1,000 400
200 Units Completed
$500
0
2012
2013
2014
2015
3-Bed 2016
2017
$0
Effeciency
1-Bed
2-Bed
4-Bed
Boston Providence Springfield Worcester Boston Providence Springfield/Worcester
*Expected
4
CAPITAL MARKETS
BOSTON SALES VOLUME ($)
PROVIDENCE SALES VOLUME ($)
SPRINGFIELD / WORCESTER SALES VOLUME ($)
TOTAL SALES VOLUME ($)
NOTABLE TRANSACTIONS
JEFFERSON APARTMENT GROUP
TAURUS INVESTMENT HOLDINGS, LLC
BUYER
PGIM REAL ESTATE
WESTBROOK PARTNERS CHARTWELL HOLDINGS
ADDRESS
99 Kneeland Street
1 Upland Woods Circle
500 Broadway
660 Ocean Avenue
1220 Adams Street
Boston Metro - Sales
TOWN
Boston
Norwood
Malden
Revere
Dorchester
$250,000
$4.0
# OF UNITS
217
262
295
194
133
$3.5
$200,000
SALE PRICE
$144,500,000
$93,000,000
$71,000,000
$59,850,000
$35,200,000
$3.0
$2.5
$150,000
$2.0 BOSTON METRO SALES Boston Metro - Sales
TRENDS
$100,000
$1.5 In Billions $4.0
$250,000
• Both locally and nationally, multifamily assets remain a favorite among investors. In 2017, more than $3.4 billion in assets changed hand in the Boston metro. This volume level represents a 4.3% increase from the previous year and a slight decrease from the 2015 peak. The median price-per-unit also continues to rise; reaching $207,206/unit in the fourth quarter of 2017. • In November, Lone Star Funds sold a portfolio of 25 multifamily properties to Harbor Group International for $1.8 billion. The sale included the Gardencrest Apartments in Waltham, which garnered an allocated price per unit of $298,000. • The Providence metro clocked in more than $109 million in multifamily investment sales in 2017. Pricing has also climbed since 2012, with the median price per unit ending the year at $64,500. Affordable Housing and Services Collaborative’s acquisition of a 64 unit low-income apartment building in Taunton for $2.7MM marks the largest transaction of the quarter. • In the Springfield/Worcester metro, more than $113 million in multifamily assets changed hands in 2017, and the median price per unit increased to $68,750. The largest transaction of the fourth quarter 2017 here was a 36 unit apartment complex that sold for roughly $3.5MM or $96,000 per unit. • Cap rates for Class A product in the Boston metro remain low; ranging from high-3% to low-5% during the fourth quarter of 2017.
$1.0
$3.5
$50,000
$200,000
$0.5
$3.0
$0
$0.0
$2.5
$150,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$2.0
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$100,000
$1.5 In Billions
$1.0
$50,000
$0.5
$0
$0.0 Boston Metro - Sales
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$250,000
$4.0
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$3.5
Providence - Sales PROVIDENCE SALES
$200,000
$3.0
$70,000
$120.0
$2.5
$150,000
$60,000
$100.0
$2.0
$100,000
$50,000
$1.5 In Billions
$80.0
$40,000
$1.0
Providence - Sales
$50,000
$60.0
$0.5
$30,000
$70,000
$40.0 In Millions $120.0
$0
$0.0
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
$20,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$60,000
$100.0
$20.0
$10,000
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$50,000
$80.0
$0
$0.0
$40,000
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$60.0
$30,000
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$40.0 In Millions
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 20 5 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
$20,000
Springfield/Worcester - Sales SPRINGFIELD / WORCESTER SALES
$20.0
$10,000
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
$120.0
$0
$0.0 Providence - Sales
$100.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$70,000
$120.0
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$80.0
$60,000
$100.0
$60.0
$50,000
$80.0
In Millions
$40.0
$40,000
$60.0
$20.0
$30,000
$40.0 In Millions
Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
$20,000
$0.0
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
$20.0
$10,000
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
$0
$0.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Total Volume ($)
Median $/Unit
www.naihunneman.com
303 Congress Street Boston, MA 617.457.3400
5
Q4
M E T R O
B O S T O N
RENT MAP
2017
91
89
95
89
91 AVERAGE BY CITY Q4 2017 Source: Yardi Matrix
$2,280 or more $1,620 - $2,280 $1,190 - $1,620 $640 - $1,190 $640 or less
95
91
495
95
93
495
91
190
90
90
91
495
90
90
90
95
495
84
395
295
495
195
195
95
395
95
6
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M E T R O
B O S T O N
MARKET RE CAP
UNDER CONSTRUCTION (UNITS)
Q4 NET ABSORPTION (UNITS)
YTD NET ABSORPTION (UNITS)
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
TOTAL VACANT (UNITS)
TOTAL VACANCY RATE
ASKING RENT ($/SF)
MARKET RATE
Boston Metro
149,991
13,546
5,250
3.5%
282
3,144
$2.39
Providence Metro
26,302
1,298
868
3.3%
44
52
$1.53
Springfield / Worcester Metro
25,391
694
711
2.8%
74
(458)
$1.50
MARKET RATE TOTAL
201,684
15,538
6,829
3.4%
400
2,738
$2.17
TOTAL INVENTORY (UNITS)
AFFORDABLE RATE
Boston Metro
63,594
Providence Metro
24,464
Springfield/Worcester Metro
20,895
AFFORDABLE RATE TOTAL
108,953
MULT I FAMI LY I NVESTMENT TEAM
DAVID N. ROSS Executive Vice President 617.457.3392 dross@naihunneman.com
CARL CHRISTIE Executive Vice President 617.457.3394 cchristie@naihunneman.com
ROBERT TITO Executive Vice President 617.457.3231 rtito@naihunneman.com
DAN MCGEE Assistant Vice President 617.457.3266 dmcgee@naihunneman.com
GINA BARROSO Assistant Vice President 617.457.3261 gbarroso@naihunneman.com
ELLIOTT WHITE Assistant Vice President 617.457.3355 ewhite@naihunneman.com
IAN MCKINLEY Senior Associate 617.457.3404 imckinley@naihunneman.com
HENRY D. LIEBER Assistant Vice President 617.457.3383 hlieber@naihunneman.com
www.naihunneman.com
303 Congress Street Boston, MA 617.457.3400
7
Q4
MULTIFAMILY M E T R O B O S T O N
2017
MARKET RATE
AFFORDABLE RATE
CAPITAL MARKETS
METHODOLOGY SOURCE: Co-Star, Yardi Matrix, NAI Hunneman Commercial Company. PREPARED: January, 2018. DISCLAIMER: The above data is from sources deemed to be generally reliable, but no warranty is made as to the accuracy of the data nor its usefulness for any particular purpose. Average Rental Rates are asking rents on direct space.
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